Mombasa port-Kenya
Rwanda has made a surprising shift in its trading preferences, with Kenya overtaking Tanzania to become the country’s second-largest source of imports after China.
This marks a significant change in the regional trade dynamics, as Tanzania had long been Rwanda’s primary partner due to its geographical proximity and the role of the Dar es Salaam port.
According to the October 2024 Formal External Trade in Goods report by the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR), imports from Kenya reached $121.45 million, representing a 361.43% increase compared to October 2023.
This places Kenya behind only China, which accounted for $142.08 million in imports, a 34.95% rise over the same period. In contrast, imports from Tanzania fell to $57.38 million, marking a 39.04% month-to-month decline and a 30.16% year-on-year decrease.
Several factors appear to be driving Rwanda’s growing preference for Kenya as an import partner.
Rwanda and Kenya have strengthened ties, influenced by improved relations and efforts to reduce trade barriers. In contrast, tensions in the region may have reduced Rwanda’s reliance on Tanzania as a transit route.
Rwanda’s government has encouraged diversification of trade routes to mitigate risks associated with over-reliance on a single country. The Northern Corridor, which runs through Kenya, is increasingly being utilized for imports.
The shift in Rwanda’s trade dynamics with Tanzania is further complicated by rising trade tensions, particularly surrounding Rwanda’s dairy exports. Tanzania has recently imposed various Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs) on Rwandan milk, disrupting a historically vital trade relationship.
Tanzania has reportedly blocked the entry of Rwandan milk under the guise of meeting local regulatory and quality standards. These barriers have effectively shut out Rwandan dairy products from Tanzanian markets, despite Rwanda meeting East African Community (EAC) standards.
