This house belongs to a pastor in Rubavu district. A shell came direct for his house. Luckily nobody was seriously injured.
On January 27, 2025, war erupted in Goma as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) launched an offensive against the M23 rebels. The conflict sent shockwaves throughout the region, but for Rwanda, the threat was immediate and tangible. As the fighting intensified, dozens of artillery shells were fired toward Rubavu, a Rwandan town bordering the conflict zone.
Under normal circumstances, this attack could have resulted in significant loss of life, widespread destruction, and an immediate military response from Rwanda. Instead, something extraordinary happened—nearly all of the shells were intercepted in mid-air. Those in Rubavu saw it firsthand, as explosions took place above them, preventing disaster on the ground.
Until that moment, few in Rwanda had given thought to the country’s air defense capabilities. The government had never publicly disclosed the existence of such a system, nor had it made any statements declaring that an attack on Rwandan territory would be neutralized before it could inflict harm.
Yet, the events of that day proved that Rwanda was prepared. While the DRC and its coalition of forces waged war, Rwanda had quietly invested in strategic defense, ensuring that its citizens were protected from the worst outcomes of cross-border hostilities.
The implications of that moment are profound. Had those shells landed, the destruction would have been catastrophic. Rwanda would have been left with no choice but to respond, likely sending its forces into the DRC in an act of self-defense. The cycle of escalation would have been set in motion, and what began as a localized conflict in Goma would have rapidly spiraled into a full-scale regional war.
Rwanda’s Commitment to Peace in the Face of Militarization
The January 27 incident was not an isolated event but part of a much larger and more dangerous trend. For years, the DRC government has engaged in an aggressive militarization campaign, mobilizing a vast array of forces to wage war in the eastern part of the country. These forces include the Congolese army (FARDC), the genocidal FDLR militia, Burundian troops, Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces (SAMIDRC), UN forces, and the Wazalendo civilian militia. These groups, despite their differences, have been united under the common goal of eliminating the M23 rebels, who have long resisted Kinshasa’s rule.
Yet, the objectives of this coalition go far beyond M23. Evidence has surfaced that weapons and ammunition stockpiled by the Congolese coalition were not just meant for the battlefield in Goma but had also been prepared for attacks on Rwandan territory. After the M23 rebels overran Goma and took control of vast areas, media reports published images of heavy artillery, rocket launchers, and long-range weaponry—clearly positioned to be used against Rwanda. This was not speculation; it was part of an increasingly open strategy of hostility toward Rwanda.
The situation became even more alarming in light of repeated statements from DRC President Félix Tshisekedi, who has openly declared his intention for “regime change” in Rwanda. His rhetoric has not been vague political posturing but rather a consistent message that the Congolese government views Rwanda as an enemy state. Tshisekedi’s words, coupled with the military preparations revealed in the aftermath of M23’s advance, paint a clear picture: the DRC was not only prepared for war with Rwanda but had been actively planning for it.
The High Stakes for Rwanda
Rwanda’s decision to avoid direct confrontation is not a sign of weakness but of calculated restraint. Of all the nations in the region, Rwanda has the most to lose from a full-scale war. Over 20 years of peace and economic growth have transformed the country into one of Africa’s most stable and prosperous nations.
One of Rwanda’s greatest success stories has been its tourism sector, which has become a key pillar of the economy. In 2023, Rwanda’s national parks alone welcomed 1.4 million visitors. Tourists flock to the country to experience its breathtaking landscapes, mountain gorillas, and conservation efforts. The Rwandan tourism industry has become a global brand, attracting high-profile investors and boosting the nation’s economy.
A regional war would bring this to an immediate halt. The flow of tourists would disappear, businesses would shutter, and the economic progress Rwanda has fought so hard to achieve would be undone.
Beyond tourism, the peace and stability that Rwandans have enjoyed since the 1994 Genocide against the Tutsi would be shattered. A war would destabilize Rwanda’s economic growth, disrupt trade, and create a humanitarian crisis that could take years, if not decades, to recover from. Rwanda has worked tirelessly to build itself into a model of resilience and development. A regional war would be the single greatest threat to that progress.
A Potential World War?
The most dangerous aspect of this crisis is that it would not remain confined to Rwanda and the DRC. The alliances being formed and the geopolitical stakes involved mean that any escalation could draw in international players, leading to a broader and more devastating conflict.
Rwanda, facing an existential threat from the FDLR and a growing genocidal ideology in the DRC, would undoubtedly seek military assistance if it were forced into war. The DRC, already backed by SADC and hosting UN peacekeepers, would attract additional support from foreign powers. Neighboring countries such as Uganda, each with their own interests in the conflict, would likely be pulled in. In a world where major global powers are already competing for influence in Africa, the possibility of a broader international confrontation cannot be dismissed.
A full-scale regional war would have devastating consequences, not just for Rwanda and the DRC, but for Africa as a whole. It would destabilize economies, displace millions, and potentially alter the geopolitical landscape for generations.
Rwanda: The Sane Party in an Unstable Region
The shooting and falling shells killed 16 people and injured over 160. Millions in damage to property was recorded. Despite being the country under the greatest threat, Rwanda remains the only rational and responsible actor in this crisis. It has been forced to defend itself against an ever-growing coalition of forces while still maintaining a commitment to peace and stability.
Instead of recognizing Rwanda’s role in preventing war, some international actors have instead chosen to punish it with sanctions and diplomatic pressure. This is not only misguided but entirely unnecessary. Rwanda is not the aggressor in this situation; it is the country that has done the most to prevent war.
If the world were acting in good faith, international leaders would not be issuing sanctions against Rwanda—they would be traveling to Kigali to personally thank the government for its restraint. They would be acknowledging Rwanda’s air defense system as a critical factor in preventing a catastrophic war. They would be working to de-escalate tensions rather than fueling them through misguided diplomatic measures.
The events of January 27, 2025, should serve as a final warning. This time, Rwanda’s air defense prevented a disaster. But what about next time? The international community cannot continue to ignore the reckless militarization of the DRC and its open threats against Rwanda. The world must recognize that Rwanda is not the problem—it is the solution.
If the current trajectory continues, war will become inevitable. When that happens, the blame will not rest with Rwanda. It will rest with those who had the power to prevent it but chose to look the other way.
